Antananarivo Facing Risks: A Study of Vulnerability and Resilience
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.64229/93z2qd74Keywords:
Vulnerability, Natural Disasters, Resilience, Adaptation, Risk ManagementAbstract
Antananarivo faces recurrent natural hazards-particularly floods, landslides, and cyclonic events-that disproportionately affect its most vulnerable populations. This study analyzes the spatial variability of disaster impacts and household resilience across the districts of Renivohitra, Atsimondrano, and Avaradrano. Using a mixed-methods design combining a survey of 231 households with 28 semi-structured interviews involving local authorities, community leaders, and national institutions, the study identifies the main factors shaping vulnerability and adaptive behaviors.
Quantitative findings show significant differences across districts, with Renivohitra experiencing the highest levels of physical and infrastructural damage, while Avaradrano and Atsimondrano face greater disruptions to livelihoods and mobility. Principal Component Analysis reveals three categories of impacts-physical damage, socio-economic disruptions, and agricultural losses-that together explain most of the observed variance. Qualitative insights highlight persistent governance challenges, including fragmented responsibilities, limited preparedness, weak communication channels, and insufficient financial autonomy at municipal levels. Community solidarity networks and Fokontany-led initiatives emerge as important, though underutilized, contributors to local resilience.
The findings demonstrate that vulnerability in Antananarivo is shaped by the interaction of environmental exposure, socio-economic fragility, and institutional constraints. Strengthening resilience therefore requires a more coordinated and anticipatory governance system, the integration of community-based practices, improved early warning and preparedness, and greater investment in infrastructure maintenance and risk-informed urban planning. The study provides evidence to support more inclusive and context-specific disaster risk management strategies in rapidly urbanizing African cities.
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